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PWA reservoir levels and pressure cuts in the 2026–27 dry season
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which nationalities to market to, and where to spend on channels
We watch visa terms for buyer visits and long stays, REIC's nationality figures each quarter, where each nationality's buying is landing, and the sanctions and banking rules that change whether a nationality can pay.
30-day visa-free entry for 60 countries takes effect 15 September, replacing 60 days
Nationality marketing: visa-free entry drops to 30 days on 15 September for the 60 countries that had 60, so a European or Australian buyer's inspection trip shortens unless they hold a DTV, LTR or retirement route.
Recommendation
If
you fly buyers in for inspection trips from visa-exempt countries
Move buyer-visit itineraries to 30 days or less and put the long-stay visa routes on the first page of your buyer pack from 15 September.
The Interior Ministry announcements were published in the Royal Gazette on 31 August. From 15 September, passport holders from 60 countries and territories — including India, the United Kingdom and the United States — receive 30 days visa-free instead of 60; three get 15 days and four move to visa on arrival. The cabinet approved the tiers on 19 May.
Foreign condo transfers fell 17.3% in Q1 2026 to 3,241 units; Chinese buyers down 38.8%
Nationality marketing: REIC's Q1 has the national market down 17.3% while Phuket's transfer value rose 34.9% on high-priced units and Russia was the one growing nationality, so this year's Phuket buyer is fewer, richer and more Russian.
Recommendation
If
you market condos to more than one nationality
Re-weight Q4 channel spend toward Russian-speaking channels and price tiers above ฿10m, and set a per-nationality sales target to check the mix monthly.
REIC's Q1/2569 foreign condominium transfer report: 3,241 units (−17.3%) worth ฿13,464m (−17.9%), 141,644 sq m (−13.8%); foreigners took 13.6% of condo units transferred and 23.9% of value. China first with 906 units (−38.8%) and ฿3,493m (−42.9%); Russia second, 383 units (+33.0%), ฿1,665m (+68.7%); Myanmar third, 279 units (−36.4%), ฿968m (−39.0%). Bangkok led value at ฿6,138m (45.6%), Chonburi led units at 1,167 (36.0%), Phuket's value grew fastest at +34.9%.
H1 foreign condo transfers down 8.8% to 6,533 units; Russian buying up 75.9%
Nationality marketing: H1 Russian transfers rose 75.9% to ฿3.6bn, concentrated in Phuket and Chonburi, while China fell 27.7%, so Russian demand is carrying this market's foreign sales while the Chinese pipeline shrinks.
Recommendation
If
Russian buyers are not yet your largest served nationality
Staff Russian-speaking sales and after-sales, and check that your payment channels can take roubles or third-country transfers under current banking rules.
REIC's first-half 2026 figures, as reported by The Nation: 6,533 units transferred to foreigners (−8.8%) worth ฿28,267m (−1.5%). China remained the largest group at ฿6,874m (−27.7%), buying mainly in Bangkok and Chonburi; Russia rose to ฿3,603m (+75.9%), concentrated in Phuket and Chonburi; Myanmar fell to ฿2,457m (−16.2%), focused on Bangkok.
launch timing and phasing of villa phases and foreign-quota units
We watch REIC's southern survey of launches, absorption and unsold stock, bank and broker forecasts, Phuket airport capacity and the Andaman second-airport timeline, and any move on the 49% condo quota.
Kasikorn Research: foreign condo transfers to fall 20% in 2026, first drop in five years
Launch timing: Kasikorn expects foreign condo transfers to fall 20% in 2026 with the provinces flat and average prices up 10.5%, so a Phuket launch this year sells into fewer buyers paying more per unit, not a growing pool.
Recommendation
If
you have a condo launch with foreign quota scheduled in 2026
Phase the foreign-quota release so the first tranche can sell out at the current price, and hold the second tranche until REIC's Q3 figures land.
Kasikorn Research Center forecasts a 20% fall in foreign condominium transfers in 2026, the first decline in five years, and reads the contraction as a Bangkok story: Bangkok-area foreign transfers fell 35% in Q1 2026 while provincial transfers were nearly flat and provincial average prices rose 10.5%.
AREA: 9,463 unsold units across 777 Phuket projects; villas 7% of units but 31% of value
Launch timing: AREA counts 9,463 unsold units across 777 Phuket projects clearing at 4.4% a month — about 23 months of stock — with villas 7% of units but 31% of value, so a condo launch faces two years of supply; villa supply is thin.
Recommendation
If
you have unlaunched land or unreleased phases in Phuket
Check your launch district's unsold count in AREA's tables and, in Thalang, phase condo release behind villa release.
The Agency for Real Estate Affairs' year-end 2025 survey, reported 3 May 2026, counted 777 projects on the island with 88,997 units, 62,132 sold and 9,463 unsold, spread across Thalang (47%), Mueang Phuket (38%) and Kathu (15%). Sales ran at 4.4% a month, about 22.8 months to clear the stock, against roughly four years in Bangkok. Holiday condominiums are 38,613 units and ฿321.0bn, 48% of total value; villas are 7% of units but 31% of value; units priced at ฿20m and above are ฿241.6bn, 36% of the whole. AREA ranks Phuket the second-largest market after Greater Bangkok.
WatchAOT plans ฿10bn Phuket airport Phase 2 to 18 million passengers; design through 2026, approval sought 2027
Launch timing: AOT's Phase 2 would take Phuket airport to 18 million passengers, but the design runs through 2026 and approval is sought in 2027, so the ceiling on arrivals has no date to plan a launch against.
Recommendation
If
you market Phuket projects on access and arrivals growth
Hold: do not market launches on airport expansion until AOT publishes an approved schedule.
Who
marketing
By
when AOT publishes an approved Phase 2 schedule
Show the recordHide the record·The Nation · 2026-05-16✓ Source verified
Airports of Thailand's expansion plan, reported 16 May 2026, puts Phuket airport's Phase 2 at around ฿10bn to add 5.5 million passengers a year and reach at least 18 million. The project is still in design, expected to complete in 2026, with approval sought by 2027. The Andaman airport in Phang Nga remains a feasibility study to be prepared for cabinet, with no timeline or budget set.
ownership structures offered — leasehold terms, company-held villas, freehold within the condo quota, and what is no longer offered
We watch Land Department orders on foreign-linked purchases, each round of nominee enforcement, and the leasehold-rights and condo-quota bills as they move.
PM orders Land Department to screen land buys: cash over ฿2m or value over ฿5m checked
Ownership structures: land offices now check the source of funds above ฿2m cash or ฿5m value and review foreign-shareholder companies monthly, so the company-held villa — Phuket's default structure — is where a buyer's file gets pulled.
Recommendation
If
you sell villas to foreigners through a Thai company or a Thai partner
Ask counsel which villa structures you offer survive the monthly company checks, and lead with registered 30-year leases and freehold-quota condos until you have the answer.
The Prime Minister, as Interior Minister, directed the Department of Lands to enforce strict procedures on land transactions involving foreign nationals. Officials must examine source of funds on transactions above ฿2m in cash or ฿5m in assessed value, inspect juristic persons with foreign shareholders monthly, report suspicious activity quarterly, investigate shareholder changes and capital increases, and prosecute nominee arrangements, with authority to force the sale of illegally held land.
Police nominee sweep Phase 3 across Phuket, Krabi and Phang Nga: 76 companies, 89 plots worth ฿1.05bn, 59 warrants
Ownership structures: Phase 3 searched 76 Andaman companies and seized 89 plots worth ฿1.05bn, ฿231m of it in Phuket, with warrants for the lawyers and auditors who built the structures, so a buyer's structure now incriminates its makers.
Recommendation
If
you have sold villas through Thai-majority companies since 2016
Document who advised each company-held sale on your books, and hold new company-route sales until counsel confirms your standard structure is not the one the warrants describe.
Who
managing director, with counsel
By
before the next company-held reservation
Show the recordHide the record·The Nation · 2026-06-20Source check pending
On 20 June 2026 more than 500 officers under the deputy national police chief searched 76 target companies in the three Andaman provinces. Investigators found 29 companies suspected of nominee activity and 48 holding land with more foreign than Thai shareholders, seized or inspected 89 plots worth ฿1,053,518,872 — ฿231m of it in Phuket, about ฿499m in Phang Nga and Krabi combined — covering hotels, resorts, condominiums, retail businesses and villas, and issued 59 arrest warrants (28 Thai, 31 foreign) and 60 search warrants, tracing the lawyers and auditors who built the structures.
We watch fee measures Thai buyers get and foreign buyers do not, provincial price and transfer figures, the baht against the rouble, yuan, euro and shekel, source-of-funds checks at transfer, and capital-outflow limits where your buyers remit from.
Land Department: source-of-funds checks and spouse declarations on flagged purchases
Payment terms: the Land Department order makes funds, income and occupation evidence part of a transfer above the thresholds, so a staged payment plan now has to produce a paper trail the land office will accept on the day.
Recommendation
If
your foreign buyers pay in stages from abroad
Add a source-of-funds pack to every foreign reservation — bank letters, remittance slips, an income statement — and price the lawyer's time into the plan.
The Department of Lands' press release sets the screening rule for land offices: individual purchases of land valued at ฿5m or more, or paid with ฿2m or more in cash, require a detailed examination of the buyer's source of money, income, occupation and financial standing. A Thai national with a foreign spouse must state that the purchase money is separate property, not marital property. Each province forms a committee with local officials to monitor suspicious patterns; suspicious cases are referred to the Minister.
Cabinet extends 0.01% transfer and mortgage fees to June 2027 for homes up to ฿7m
Pricing: the 0.01% transfer and mortgage fees run to June 2027 for Thai buyers of homes up to ฿7m while foreigners still pay 2%, so a mixed building quotes two effective prices for the same unit.
Recommendation
If
you sell units under ฿7m to both Thai and foreign buyers
Show foreign buyers the all-in transfer cost next to the Thai price on the price list, and decide whether you absorb the 2% on quota units below ฿7m.
Who
sales director
By
before the next price list
Show the recordHide the record·Thai PBS · 2026-06-30✓ Source verified
On 30 June the cabinet approved cutting the property transfer registration fee from 2% to 0.01% and the mortgage registration fee from 1% to 0.01% for houses, townhouses and condominiums priced and appraised at no more than ฿7m, from Royal Gazette publication until 30 June 2027. Eligibility is Thai-national individuals buying a home of their own; foreign buyers are outside the measure and keep paying the 2% transfer fee.
rental programmes and short-term letting — whether to sell with a rental programme or yield promise, on what terms, and how a rental pool sits inside a hotel licence
We watch Hotel Act enforcement against short-term lets and the exemptions under it, licence conditions for mixed hotel-and-residence buildings, platform and tourist-tax rules, tourism arrivals by source market, and how branded residences structure their rental pools.
Provincial Administration raids three unlicensed hotel operations in Karon and Rawai
Rental programmes: the Interior Ministry's own operations unit raided unlicensed hotel operations in Karon and Rawai and calls it a campaign, so a rental programme that lets units by the night now sells the buyer an enforcement risk.
Recommendation
If
you sell condos or villas with a rental programme that includes nightly stays
Ask counsel whether your rental programme can run only on stays of 30 nights or more, or inside a licensed hotel, and rewrite the yield illustration on that basis.
Who
sales director, with counsel
By
before the next rental-programme contract is signed
Show the recordHide the record·Thailand News · 2026-06-11Source check pending
On or about 11 June 2026 the Department of Provincial Administration's central special-operations unit, under its director-general, raided three establishments in Karon and Rawai operating as hotels without a hotel licence, in breach of the Hotel Act B.E. 2547. The department called the operation part of a broader campaign against unlicensed accommodation across Phuket and other major tourist destinations.
WatchWichit condo inspected for daily rentals under the Hotel Act after resident complaints
Rental programmes: a Wichit condo was inspected for daily rentals under Hotel Act §15 on residents' complaints — the second Phuket enforcement in two months — so complaints inside a building are now a route to inspection.
Recommendation
If
you manage or have sold buildings where owners let units
Brief the juristic-person managers in your buildings on the 30-night rule and log owner complaints about daily lets.
Who
property management
By
before the October high season
Show the recordHide the record·The Thaiger · 2026-07-30✓ Source verified
On 30 July 2026 Phuket officials inspected a condominium in Wichit after residents complained of rooms let by the day. Staff were present but neither the owner nor the manager; the operator faces proceedings under Section 15 of the Hotel Act B.E. 2547, which carries fines and imprisonment.
Ministerial Regulation No. 2 (2566): accommodation of up to 8 rooms and 30 guests notifies the district instead of licensing as a hotel
Rental programmes: since October 2023 an accommodation of up to 8 rooms and 30 guests may notify the district instead of licensing as a hotel, so a small villa cluster can let by the night lawfully where a condo unit cannot.
Recommendation
If
you sell both villas and condos with rental programmes
Ask counsel whether each villa project can be run under the 8-room notification, and keep condo rental programmes on stays of 30 nights or more.
Who
sales director, with counsel
By
before the next rental-programme contract is signed
The Ministerial Regulation on hotel types and criteria (No. 2) B.E. 2566, gazetted 30 August 2023 and in force 60 days later, raised the non-hotel threshold from 4 rooms and 20 guests to 8 rooms and 30 guests: an accommodation within it notifies the district office as a non-hotel place of lodging instead of applying for a hotel licence. Everything above the threshold, and every stay under 30 days outside it, is hotel business under the Hotel Act B.E. 2547.
WatchDraft Hotel Act amendment: non-hotel accommodation to register with a named manager; comments to 30 May
Rental programmes: the draft Hotel Act amendment would register non-hotel accommodation with a named manager instead of a licence, so the legal route for a rental programme may change — but the bill is at public comment, not law.
Recommendation
If
you sell or run rental programmes
Hold: keep rental-programme contracts on the current 30-night line and have counsel note what the bill would change.
A draft amendment to the Hotel Act B.E. 2547, proposed by MP Naknanang Kulnathasiri and colleagues, was opened for public comment on parliament's Section 77 portal on 1 May 2026 with a deadline of 30 May. It would bring accommodation businesses that are not hotels under the Act through registration with a designated manager, apply hotel-management rules and penalties to them, restructure the oversight committee under the deputy interior minister with five private-sector members, and let the minister set registration fees.
WatchLaw firm: Council of State drafting an Accommodation Act; court ruling says only monthly rentals fall outside the Hotel Act
Rental programmes: a law firm reports an Accommodation Act in draft at the Council of State and an early-2026 ruling that only monthly rentals fall outside the Hotel Act, so anything shorter is hotel business until that draft becomes law.
Recommendation
If
you sell or run rental programmes
Hold: write yield illustrations on monthly lets only until the Accommodation Act is enacted or shelved.
A 10 April 2026 note by Formichella & Sritawat reports a Thai court judgment in early 2026 that only monthly rentals are exempt from the Hotel Act, a room rented by the month not being a hotel room, and says a proposed Accommodation Act in draft at the Council of State could allow registration of short-term lets without a full hotel licence. Penalties under the Act are up to one year's imprisonment, a fine up to ฿20,000, or both, plus up to ฿10,000 a day while the offence continues.
site and product — hillside and coastal building limits, water supply, villa against condo, branded against independent
We watch building-control and elevation rules and the orders that follow landslides and floods, environmental-impact rulings on hillside and coastal projects, provincial water-shortage declarations, the road, tunnel and airport projects that change which districts sell, and brand entries and management-contract terms that reach the public record.
C9 Hotelworks: Thai branded residences ฿205.3bn, 13,124 units; Phuket's 3,465 units the largest resort stock in Asia
Product: C9 counts Phuket's 3,465 branded-residence units as Asia's largest resort stock in a ฿205bn Thai market, with developers competing on rental programmes and management, so an unbranded villa competes on price against a serviced one.
Recommendation
If
you sell unbranded villas or condos within reach of branded stock
Decide per project whether to add a management or rental programme or price against the branded stock, and list the branded projects within 3 km of each site with their published rental terms.
C9 Hotelworks' Asia Branded Residences Market Review 2026, reported 30 June 2026, values Thailand's branded-residence market at ฿205.3bn (US$6.4bn) across 13,124 launched units, up 13.3% year on year, with Phuket's 3,465 units leading Asia's resort segment by count. Buyers are affluent Thais, expatriates and international investors; developers now compete on rental programmes and management services as part of the ownership offer.
PWA cuts night water pressure across Phuket 11–15 May as Bang Wad reservoir falls to 27%
Site and product: the PWA cut night water pressure island-wide in May with Bang Wad at 27%, so a project without its own storage or supply contract sells a dry-season problem the buyer will meet in the first year.
Recommendation
If
your projects rely on PWA mains water
Specify on-site storage or a private supply contract for every villa project, and put the arrangement in the sales pack as a stated feature.
Who
project director
By
before the next dry season begins in December
Show the recordHide the record·The Phuket News · 2026-05-09✓ Source verified
The Provincial Waterworks Authority's Phuket branch announced scheduled pressure reductions from 10pm to 5am on 11–15 May 2026 because raw-water reserves at Bang Wad had fallen to 27% of capacity, with Bang Neow Dum at 41% and Klong Kata at 42%; some areas were warned to expect very low pressure or no running water in those hours. At the same meeting the deputy governor ordered every agency to prepare for floods and landslides forecast for 15–20 May — drainage, storage and emergency equipment.
WatchPhuket orders Karon evacuation drills as surveys detect hillside ground movement
Site: Phuket ordered Karon evacuation drills after surveys found hillside ground movement, and the meeting was told the law does not address sloping-land development, so tighter hillside rules are being argued for but not yet ordered.
Recommendation
If
you hold hillside land in Karon, Kamala or Patong
Hold: keep hillside land in Karon and Kamala unlaunched until the province says whether new slope rules follow the drills.
Who
project director
By
when the province publishes any order on sloping-land development
Show the recordHide the record·The Phuket News · 2026-04-11✓ Source verified
After a disaster-preparedness meeting on 11 April 2026 Phuket ordered full-scale evacuation drills in Karon the following month. Officials said LiDAR and drone surveys had already detected ground movement in several areas; academics at the meeting said existing law does not adequately address development on sloping land, and agencies were told to fold the research into operational plans and speed up early-warning installations. Karon, Kamala and the Khao Phanthurat hills at the western edge of Koh Kaew are the named at-risk areas.
WatchKathu–Patong expressway: land 99% acquired, back to cabinet in Q4 2026, opening around 2031
Site: the Kathu–Patong expressway returns to cabinet in Q4 2026 with land 99% acquired and an opening around 2031, so Patong access is a decision five years out, not a feature to sell today.
Recommendation
If
you sell in Patong or Kathu
Hold: keep the tunnel out of Patong and Kathu sales material until cabinet approves it.
As of 20 July 2026, EXAT is cited putting land acquisition for the Kathu–Patong section at about 99%, with the remaining plots expected by September 2026. The revised project returns to cabinet in the fourth quarter of 2026; if approved, construction could start in 2027 and take about four years, opening around 2031. The tunnel is 1.85 km, narrowed to 14 m, with proposed tolls of ฿20 for cars and ฿10 for motorcycles.
partner channels abroad, and local agents and lawyers
We watch which provinces each nationality's buying lands in, and enforcement that touches the agents and lawyers who set up or sell foreign holdings — including foreign-run agencies working without licences or work permits.
Channels: the DBD probe names Phuket's 11,626 foreign-linked firms and its red flags — a foreign majority holder with sole signing power, one Thai director across many firms — so agencies and law offices built that way are under review.
Recommendation
If
you co-broke with foreign-run agencies or refer buyers to lawyers who set up holding companies
Check the shareholding and signing pattern of every agency and law office you co-broke or refer through against the DBD's red flags, and stop referring to any that match until it has cleaned up.
Who
sales director
By
before the next co-broke agreement
Show the recordHide the record·The Nation · 2026-05-18✓ Source verified
Reported 18 May 2026: the Department of Business Development is investigating more than 50,000 companies in tourist hotspots for nominee ownership — 19,910 foreign-linked firms in Pattaya, 11,626 in Phuket, 8,213 on Samui, 2,381 on Phangan and 2,081 in Hua Hin — screening for red flags such as a foreign national holding the maximum shareholding with sole signing authority, or one Thai citizen appearing as director across many unrelated firms. Foreign Business Act penalties run to three years' imprisonment and fines of ฿300,000 to ฿1,000,000; new registration rules requiring shareholders' bank statements and signed declarations are said to have cut high-risk nominee registrations by 75% since January 2026.
We watch each phase of the police nominee operation, the DBD's review of foreign-shareholder land holders, and the reports from the Phuket land committee.
DBD reviews 36,277 foreign-shareholder land holders; Chiang Mai among 16 provinces
Compliance: the DBD is reviewing 36,277 foreign-shareholder companies that hold land, with Phuket, Krabi and Phang Nga on its 16-province list, so a company-held villa portfolio here should expect a letter.
Recommendation
If
you hold or have sold land through companies with foreign shareholders
Pull the shareholder registers and land titles of every company you set up or sold through, and have counsel check each against the DBD's declaration rules before the review reaches it.
Who
managing director, with counsel
By
before the DBD's review reaches Phuket companies
Show the recordHide the record·Thai PBS · 2026-08-17✓ Source verified
The Department of Business Development cross-checked land-holding data on 144,706 entities received from the Department of Lands against 125,662 companies under its oversight: 123,542 hold real estate, of which 87,265 are wholly Thai-owned and 36,277 have foreign shareholders — 31,516 at or below 49% and 4,761 above. Holdings concentrate in Bangkok and five surrounding provinces plus ten tourism provinces including Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai, 35,154 entities in 16 provinces. Violations of the Foreign Business Act carry up to three years' imprisonment or fines of ฿100,000 to ฿1m, or both.
Phuket raids put 361 companies through the Land Office; naturalised citizens treated as suspected fronts
Compliance: the August raids put 361 Phuket companies through the Land Office — 114 sued, 31 nominee cases — and treat recently naturalised shareholders as suspected fronts, so a Thai ID card no longer settles who the Thai partner is.
Recommendation
If
your structures rely on Thai shareholders whose nationality history you have not checked
Ask counsel whether any Thai shareholder in your structures was naturalised after 2015 and what the Land Office now expects for them before it registers a transfer.
Who
managing director, with counsel
By
before the next transfer at the Phuket or Thalang land office
Show the recordHide the record·The Thaiger · 2026-08-17✓ Source verified
On 6 August 2026 police raided eight Phuket locations — vehicle rentals, car washes, schools, restaurants, IT and electronics shops, a pharmacy — and prosecuted 16 people: 10 Thais, two Canadians, three Russians and one Kazakhstani. Police are working through 361 companies with the Phuket Provincial Land Office and its Thalang branch, with 114 sued and 31 nominee cases so far; the inquiry, led by the deputy interior minister with the Department of Lands and the Commerce Ministry, treats recently naturalised Thai citizens holding shares as suspected fronts, and more than 100 Phuket firms with over ฿5bn of revenue last year are under financial review.
EXAT cited on land at 99%; read the cabinet paper for width, tolls and the agency in charge.
Open
Sansiri's ฿40bn four-year Phuket plan: seven launches worth ฿10bn in H2 2026, three of them pool villas
opened 6 Sep · checked 6 Sep
Reported by the Bangkok Post (3290347), which the loop cannot open — every article redirects to a paywall gateway (HTTP 402). Watch until a secondary or Sansiri's own release opens.
Open
AOT's Phase 2 for Phuket airport — design completion and the approval AOT seeks in 2027
opened 6 Sep · checked 6 Sep
Design through 2026; no approved schedule yet.
The desk's diary
Investigations, kills, watches — day by day.
6 Sep · 5 sources
InvestigatedDay one: judged the 24 items across the five bundles this beat composes — eight on rules and enforcement, one on visas, five on foreign demand, seven on Phuket itself, three on letting rules — from the ten-events test (docs/sector-desk-product-plan.md §12.6).
Surfaced16 surfaced against the decision list: nationality marketing three times, ownership structures twice, pricing and payment terms twice, compliance posture twice, launch timing twice, rental programmes twice, site and product twice, channels once.
Watch6 held as Watch: the Karon hillside surveys, AOT's Phase 2, the Kathu–Patong cabinet decision, the Wichit condo inspection, the Hotel Act bill and the Accommodation Act draft.
Killed2 killed: the Saraphi Phase 5 sweep (a Chiang Mai instance of an operation already on this page — precedent recorded) and REIC's 2025 annual item (a Chiang Mai line with no Phuket figure).
NoteUnlisted and noindex through the public weeks (plan §7 Phase 0). Market name is a working title. Every move that touches a structure, a contract or a licence is a question for counsel (plan §13). Thai fields on this record are drafts for the Thai co-founder's review.
QuietNothing new to judge: Thai foreign-ownership rules and enforcement, Long-stay and buyer visas, Foreign demand into Thai property, Phuket local, Short-term letting and hotel licensing carried no new or re-cut items since the last verdicts; 24 verdicts stand.