Sansiri

7 Sep · 27 sources

• InvestigatedDay-8 re-check (Monday): all 12 existing sources were re-fetched and every one still stands, so every checkCount moved up by one. Eighteen leads were worked across the five sections and all six open watch rows. Nothing in the Thai property press carried a primary source dated 5 to 7 September at all: prop2morrow, Thansettakij's real-estate section, RYT9's property wire and REIC's news index were each opened tonight and each runs out at 4 September. Zero new items is the honest result for a weekend that did not produce one, and no card was re-cut either, which makes this the first fully still night since 27 August.
• KilledKilled 11 leads. Origin's repayment of 714.7 million baht of debentures due 1 September (thaipr.net/estate/3756093, 1 ก.ย. 69 17:34 — the closest thing tonight to a card, since it lands squarely on the property-sector maturities siri-fund-2 carries, but it is dated inside the window the 5 September run already swept, it is the company's own PR about itself, and every statement in it is attributed to a named chief executive, which this desk does not carry); the National Housing Authority's บ้านเพื่อคนไทย plan of 44,000 units over five years (Thansettakij, 4 Sep — out of window, and social housing for low-income buyers belongs to none of the five sections, which read on mid-market and premium demand); Savills' data-centre land-price story putting industrial land up more than 50% (Thansettakij and prop2morrow 869933, 4 Sep — industrial land, no section houses it); CardX with SC Asset on 0% instalments (prop2morrow 869921, 4 Sep — consumer-finance marketing PR, and SC Asset sits outside the AP, Supalai and Origin set this section's rationale names, the test that killed SENA's KTC tie-up on 6 September); AssetWise and Takara Leben's Modiz Vault celebration (prop2morrow 869882 — marketing PR from outside that same set); Lalin Property's 5-6 September promotion (RYT9, dated 31 Aug — a single developer's sales promotion, out of window and outside the set); the AMS overview of Pattaya's September condo market (thepattayanews, 5 Sep — in window and on foreign demand, but it is an agency's own market commentary rather than registry data, and Chonburi is not a section here); GULF's four-series October retail and digital debenture (siambusinessnews 92010 — in the October window and genuinely retail, but GULF is not a residential developer, so it is corroboration on developer-retail-debenture-return rather than a card); Sansiri's own Global Luxury Hospitality portfolio push and its low-rise-portfolio story (RYT9, 3 Sep — both circular, the company's own news about itself, the test that has already killed the February Phuket release, the dividend, the Net Zero announcement, the H1 foreign-sales release, the HUB Hua Hin launch and the Phuket four-year plan); the LTR aggregator figures once more, now 10,773 approvals to 31 July 2026, which no BOI primary states; and a BOI-hosted LTR presentation found tonight at boi.go.th/upload/content/LTR-March_2026_Stcokholm.pdf, which would have been the first BOI primary this desk could read but does not serve a PDF to the fetcher and is a March roadshow deck in any case.
• WatchSix rows open, six checked, none closed and none opened. reic-foreign-province-table: REIC's index still shows 287 of 27 August as the newest release, so the province table a Phuket number would need has still not published. debenture-filed-terms: the Sansiri IR table is still stamped as of August, its 26 series still carry no five-year 3.70% issue, and no SEC filing was located on an eighth night. mpc-4-2569-minutes: meeting 3/2569 is still the newest minutes posted, with 4/2569 due about 9 September, two days out — this is the row most likely to fire next. boi-ltr-statistics: three new dead ends tonight, including a BOI-hosted LTR deck that does not serve as a PDF, so wealth migration stays honestly empty. ap-h2-launch-revision: AP's own wire still carries only the 6 July plan of 27 projects worth 32,320 million baht, so siri-comp-1 is unchanged on a third night. developer-retail-debenture-return: no October calendar has published yet, and the only October retail name found so far is GULF, which is not a developer.
• NoteRe-check result: all 12 existing items re-fetched and standing, with every quoted figure reproduced verbatim on its own live source and no correction, postponement or supersession found on any card. That includes the REIC PDF behind siri-foreign-1, read again tonight with source:pdf and still carrying the half-year foreign paragraph word for word, and the Thai Rath September calendar behind siri-fund-3, which still lists the same eleven series from seven issuers with Sansiri absent. All twelve cards changed nothing but checkCount.
• NoteTwo flags for the human verifier. (1) The quiet is real, not a fetch failure. The four Thai property indexes this desk sweeps were each opened tonight and each returns nothing dated 5 to 7 September, which is what a Saturday-to-Monday window looks like in this press; nothing was skipped because a source refused the fetcher. (2) The Origin repayment killed tonight is the one a verifier may want to argue with. A listed developer meeting a 714.7 million baht maturity on the day it fell due is a clean neutral fact about exactly the property-sector maturity wall siri-fund-2 describes, and it would sit well beside that card. It was killed on three grounds — out of window, circular for a competitor's own PR, and attributed to a named executive — but the last is the binding one, and the same event carried in an exchange filing rather than a company PR would clear the bar.

6 Sep · 30 sources

• InvestigatedDay-7 re-check (Sunday): all 12 existing sources were re-fetched and every one still stands, so every checkCount moved up by one. Twenty leads were worked across the five sections and every watch carried in from the diary. The night's real find was not in the last 24 hours at all: the REIC release this desk has cited since 5 September turned out to carry the foreign-transfer figures the desk had been waiting six checks for, inside its attached PDF rather than on the web page five earlier runs read. Two cards were re-cut, no new items were added, and the desk's prose watches became rows tonight.
• Notesiri-foreign-1 re-cut, source superseded, and a six-night watch closed. REIC's H1/2569 national housing release (press release 287, 27 Aug) states the half-year foreign condominium transfers in its PDF: 6,533 units, down 8.8% year on year, worth 28,267 million baht, down 1.5%, with China first by value at 6,874 million baht but down 27.7%, Russia up 75.9% at 3,603 million baht and named as growing in Phuket and Chonburi, and Myanmar down 16.2%. None of that appears on the HTML page of the same release, which is why the runs of 22, 23, 24, 25 and 27 August and 5 September all concluded the foreign data was unpublished. The card's Q1 figures are superseded and it now points at the PDF, read tonight with source:pdf. This also answers, with registry data, the tension this desk flagged on 24 August between one developer's Phuket customer book and REIC's national picture: the resort split is real and it is Russian.
• Notesiri-fund-3 trimmed, one sentence too strong. The card said the telling fact about September's retail debenture calendar was that no residential developer appears on it at all. That is true of the Thai Rath list the card cites, but tonight's check found three residential developers raising this month: MQDC at 6.90 and 7.20%, Charn Issara at 7.30% and Chewathai at 7.40 and 7.60%, all subscribing between 10 and 16 September. Every one of them is offered to institutional and high-net-worth investors only, none to retail, so the source is not wrong and no figure on the card changed. What changed is the inference the sentence invited. The card now says the retail list prices the retail bid rather than developer paper, and the move carries the institutional and high-net-worth channel as a stated premise.
• KilledKilled 10 leads. The three September developer debentures as items (MQDC via infoquest.co.th/2026/629868, Charn Issara via 629885, Chewathai via 629880 with its RYT9 mirror 12836201, all announced 11 Aug and so out of window, and all sold to institutional and high-net-worth investors rather than retail, which is what makes them corroboration on siri-fund-3 rather than a card); AP's oversubscribed 6,300 million baht debenture (dailynews.co.th/news/6035620, 17 Jul, out of window and built on a named executive's quotes); Sansiri's own 40 billion baht four-year Phuket plan with seven H2 launches worth 10 billion baht (Bangkok Post 3290347, which returns a paywall gateway to the fetcher and is in any case the company's own plan about itself, the circular test that has already killed the February Phuket release, the dividend, the Net Zero announcement, the H1 foreign-sales release and the HUB Hua Hin launch); AssetWise's 11 projects worth 17,555 million baht including six Phuket Leisure Residence projects at 10,100 million baht (prop2morrow, in-window but AssetWise sits outside the AP, Supalai and Origin set this section's rationale names, the test that killed SC Asset, Aornsirin and SENA); CONNER Ratchathewi passing 90% sold (ryt9.com/s/prg/12842020, 4 Sep, single-project marketing PR from outside that same set); REIC News 471073 on homes that sell but cannot transfer and 471072 on the campus-condo race with Supalai buying land quietly (2 and 3 Sep, before tonight's window and inside the one the last run swept, and both are press features built on consultancy and executive quotes); The Standard's read on Sansiri's H2 outlook (circular and attributed to a named executive); and the LTR aggregator figures again, roughly 7,000 approvals and 23 billion baht of economic impact, which no BOI primary states.
• WatchThe watches became rows tonight. Six were carried forward from the diary and one was opened out of tonight's work; five are open, one resolved. RESOLVED: reic-foreign-transfer-refresh, opened 22 Aug and closed tonight into siri-foreign-1, because the half-year foreign figures arrived inside the H1 national release rather than in the standalone quarterly report. OPENED in its place: reic-foreign-province-table, for the province breakdown that release does not publish, which is what a Phuket number on a card would need. Also OPENED: developer-retail-debenture-return, the October calendar as the test of whether developer paper comes back to the retail channel. STILL OPEN and checked tonight: debenture-filed-terms, where the Sansiri IR debenture table is still stamped as of August and lists no five-year 3.70% series among its 25 issues; mpc-4-2569-minutes, where the BOT's edited-minutes page still shows meeting 3/2569 as the newest posted, with 4/2569 due about 9 September; boi-ltr-statistics, where ltr.boi.go.th still publishes its two statistics panels as images with no figures in text; and ap-h2-launch-revision, where AP's own wire still carries only the 6 July plan of 27 projects worth 32,320 million baht.
• NoteRe-check result: all 12 existing items re-fetched and standing, with every quoted figure reproduced verbatim on its live source and no correction, postponement or supersession found on any card's own source. Ten cards changed nothing but checkCount. The two that changed, siri-foreign-1 and siri-fund-3, were re-cut for reasons that came from outside their own sources: a fresher document behind the same release, and three offerings the card's source does not list. Note also what changed in the desk's shape rather than its content: the watches this desk has carried as prose since 22 August are rows from tonight on, so the checklist is on the page instead of in the diary. The prose stays exactly as it was written.
• NoteFour flags for the human verifier. (1) Two cards now rest on one REIC release read two ways: siri-policy-4 links the HTML page for the national transfer figures, siri-foreign-1 links the attached PDF for the foreign ones, because the page does not carry them. That is deliberate, but a verifier should know the two documents differ. (2) The half-year foreign decline of 8.8% in units against the first quarter's 17.3% implies the second quarter ran materially better than the first. REIC states no quarterly split in this release, so that comparison is this desk's arithmetic across two reports and it is kept off the card. (3) Russia's 75.9% is growth in transfer value, not units, and REIC names Phuket and Chonburi without publishing province figures, so nothing on the card puts a number on Phuket. (4) The siri-fund-3 trim is a judgement call worth a second opinion: the sentence removed was literally true of the source, and it was removed because of what it implied, not because of what it said.

5 Sep

• InvestigatedDay-6 re-check, and the first run in nine days: the previous run closed at 00:58 on 27 Aug and this one at 02:05 on 5 Sep, so the un-swept window is 27 Aug – 5 Sep rather than the usual single evening, and tonight's sweep was widened to match. All 10 existing sources were re-fetched and every one still stands — the Thansettakij gazette report, the BOT LTV release, the BOT MPC 4/2569 statement, REIC's Q1 foreign-transfer report, K-Research via RYT9, the AP and Supalai exchange-press articles, Origin's newsroom, MGR's debenture notice and Post Today's ThaiBMA summary all reproduced their quoted figures verbatim, so every checkCount moved to 6. Twenty-one leads were worked across the five sections and all four carried-forward watches. Two watches fired, one card was re-cut and two new items were added — the first non-empty surfacing night since the desk opened.
• Notesiri-fund-1 re-cut, watch resolved, source swapped. The subscription this card had pointed forward to since 22 Aug is over: the offering was fully subscribed at ฿1,000m in 67 seconds on 27 Aug, and the source was swapped to Banmuang's 27 Aug 20:01 report of the result, which states the amount, the fill time and the five-year tenor verbatim. This finally answers the issue-size question the desk had carried open for six nights — ฿1,000m — because the release states the offering was taken up 'เต็มจำนวน' at that figure. Following the same trim discipline used on the fee-cut card on 23 Aug, the 3.70% coupon, the quarterly payment, the ฿1,000 minimum and the TRIS BBB+ came OFF the card because the new linked source states none of them; all four are unchanged and survive in notes, corroborated by the MGR terms notice which was re-fetched tonight and still reproduces every term. archiveFile cleared for re-archive; autoVerdict cleared for the gate to re-stamp.
• SurfacedTwo new items, both from the un-swept window. siri-policy-4: REIC's H1/2569 national housing report (press release 287, 27 Aug) — transfers 167,665 units, +17.6% YoY, worth ฿429,839m, +9.8%, with REIC crediting by name the two measures this desk already carries as siri-policy-1 and siri-policy-2, and condominiums growing fastest at +24.1% in units. That release published the same night the previous run was closing, which is why it was missed then. siri-fund-3: Thai Rath's 31 Aug September retail debenture calendar — 11 series from 7 issuers at 2.50–6.00%, with Sansiri absent and no residential developer on the list at all.
• KilledKilled 9 leads. Sansiri's own HUB Hua Hin condo launch and its Lake Como EDITION acquisition (prop2morrow, 3–4 Sep — both in-window and both circular, the company's own project news about itself, the test that has already killed the February Phuket release, the dividend, the Net Zero announcement and the H1 foreign-sales release); Plus Property's three-year Phuket roadmap (prop2morrow 869877 — Plus is Sansiri's own subsidiary, so circular on the same test); SENA's KTC/Krungthai 0%-instalment tie-up (prop2morrow 869892, 3 Sep — SENA sits outside the AP/Supalai/Origin set this section's rationale names, the test that killed SC Asset, Aornsirin and SENA before); NC Housing–Panasonic and Crocodile Corporation (prop2morrow, 3–4 Sep — in-window, no section houses them); the AP–Sansiri–SC combined H2 launch story putting 57 projects at ฿88,670m (thestandard, 14 Aug — out of window, and every figure is attributed to three named executives, which this desk does not carry, though see tonight's verifier flag on the AP number); Origin's 3/2569 debenture at 5.50–6.00% subscribed 25–27 Aug (thaipr.net 3746718 — the announcement is dated 4 Aug and so out of window, no subscription result is published anywhere the desk could fetch, and the release is built on a named executive's quotes); and REIC's second-hand housing report at PressRelease/279 (16 Jun, covering Q1/2569 — stale, and opened tonight only while hunting the Q2 foreign-transfer report).
• WatchFive watches, two of them retired tonight. (1) RETIRED: the debenture subscription watch is resolved — filled at ฿1,000m in 67 seconds and siri-fund-1 is re-cut against the result. Its replacement is narrower: the SEC filing and the use of proceeds are STILL unlocated after a sixth night, and investor.sansiri.com's debenture table, re-fetched tonight, has finally moved its stamp from 'as of May 2026' to 'ณ เดือนสิงหาคม 2569' — but the only August series listed is SIRI27OA (฿2,000m, 0% coupon, 1.19 years, maturing 21 Oct 2027) and this five-year 3.70% issue is absent, plausibly because settlement falls in September. Re-check the IR table once the September stamp lands; that is where the filed terms should first appear. (2) RETIRED AND REPLACED: REIC published on 27 Aug, but it published the H1 national market report, not the foreign one — so siri-policy-4 exists and the Q2/2569 foreign condo transfer report is STILL unpublished on a sixth check. The press-release index was re-fetched tonight and 287 is now the newest release; the 16 Jun Q1 report remains the latest foreign-transfer data, so siri-foreign-1 still cannot be refreshed. (3) The edited minutes of MPC meeting 4/2569 have NOT published: the BOT's edited-minutes page was fetched tonight and meeting 3/2569 is still the most recent posted. BOT states minutes appear about two weeks after each meeting, which puts 4/2569 around 9 Sep — the housing and mortgage detail the 26 Aug statement omits entirely should be there. The next decision remains 28 October 2026. (4) BOI LTR remains unsourceable on a sixth night: ltr.boi.go.th was re-opened tonight and its 'Statistics of LTR Visa' and 'Statistics Nationalities of LTR Visa' panels still carry no figures in text — they are images — and no statistics page is linked. Wealth migration stays honestly empty. (5) NEW: AP's H2 launch plan may have been revised upward — see tonight's verifier flag.
• NoteRe-check result: all 10 existing items re-fetched and standing — every quoted figure reproduced verbatim on its live source, with no correction, postponement or supersession found on any of them. Nine cards changed nothing but checkCount; the tenth, siri-fund-1, was re-cut because the event it was waiting on happened. Note the nine-day gap in the diary between 27 Aug and tonight. That is a real gap, not a rendering artefact and not a run whose entries went missing: the desk did not run on 28 Aug–4 Sep, and rather than backfill those days this run widened its research window to cover them and says so. Both new items tonight are dated inside that gap (27 and 31 Aug), which is exactly what a missed week looks like when it is worked honestly.
• NoteThree flags for the human verifier. (1) AP's H2 launch plan: siri-comp-1's card says AP is backing its H2 with '27 launches worth ฿32.3bn', sourced to AP's own 6 Jul release. Reporting from 14 Aug puts AP's revised H2 plan at 31 projects worth ฿33,320m (Q3 17 projects ฿17,900m, Q4 14 projects ฿15,420m) inside a full-year plan lifted to 46 projects and ฿56,000m. The card was NOT changed tonight, because the only sourcing found for the revision is press attributed to named executives and no AP release carrying the new figures was locatable — but if the revision is real the card's competitor number is stale, and a verifier with access to AP's investor materials should settle it. (2) The debenture result reaches this desk only through the issuer's and distributor's joint PR, reproduced by several outlets and everywhere attributed to two named executives. The amount and the fill time are consistent across every reproduction fetched, but no filed document confirms them, and Matichon's version and the government PR department's carry both refused the fetcher (403 and a closed socket). Treat ฿1,000m as company-stated, not filed. (3) siri-policy-4's closing sentence — that units grew about twice as fast as value, so volume is arriving at lower average prices — is this desk's arithmetic on two sourced growth rates, not a REIC statement. It is also the one line on that card that cuts against the release's headline framing, which is why it is flagged rather than buried.

27 Aug

• InvestigatedDay-5 re-check: all 10 sources re-fetched and every item still stands — the Thansettakij gazette report, the BOT LTV release, REIC's Q1 foreign-transfer report, K-Research via RYT9, the AP and Supalai exchange-press articles, Origin's newsroom, MGR's debenture notice and Post Today's ThaiBMA summary all reproduced their quoted figures verbatim, so every checkCount moved to 5. Twelve fresh leads were worked across the five sections plus all four carried-forward watches. One item changed materially tonight and no new items were added: after four quiet nights the watch that mattered finally fired, and it fired on a card the desk already had.
• Notesiri-policy-3 re-cut, source superseded. MPC meeting 4/2569 reported on 26 August and the card's June 3/2569 statement is no longer the latest decision, so the source was swapped to the BOT's own release (ข่าว ธปท. ฉบับที่ 31/2569, 26 ส.ค. 2569): a unanimous hold at 1.00%, total credit expanding on large-business lending while SME credit keeps contracting, and an explicit line on watching debt-servicing capacity among vulnerable SMEs and households. Two things came off the card. The '2026 GDP view to 2.3%' figure went, because the August statement carries no numeric GDP or inflation forecast at all — it says only that growth is close to the previous assessment — so that number is no longer stated by the linked source. And the spent 'next call August 26' line was replaced with the next decision date, 28 October 2026, taken from the BOT's own published meeting schedule rather than from press. archiveFile cleared for re-archive against the new source; autoVerdict cleared for the gate to re-stamp. The three research-house hold forecasts this desk has been carrying as corroboration since Aug 23 — K-Research twice and SCB EIC — all called it correctly and can now be retired.
• KilledKilled 8 leads: Sansiri's own foreign-sales release of over ฿5,500m in H1 across five strategic markets (prop2morrow 869564, 26 Aug — in-window and squarely on this desk's foreign-demand section, but it is the company reporting its own book to itself, the same circular test that killed the February Phuket release on Aug 22 and the dividend on Aug 25; it is also sourced to a named executive, which this desk does not carry); SENA's appointment of an exclusive foreign-sales agent for one riverside project (prop2morrow 869580, 26 Aug — single-project marketing PR, and SENA sits outside the AP/Supalai/Origin set this section's rationale names, the test that already killed SC Asset and Aornsirin); Sansiri's Green Property / Net Zero 2050 announcement (prop2morrow 869573, 26 Aug — circular, and no section houses it); REIC's read on EEC housing slowing with weak purchasing power (Thansettakij 667379, 26 Aug — the article is in-window but the data is the Q2/2569 EEC price index REIC published on 17 Aug, an event this desk already logged as stale, and the EEC is not a section here); the Bangkok office-market supply story and the Orange Line and Lumphini land-price features (Thansettakij 667468, 667426, 667403, 26 Aug — all in-window, none belonging to any of the five sections); a collapsed ฿1,900m land deal in Bang Yai (Thansettakij 667464, 26 Aug — the story turns on a named individual buyer, so it is out on PDPA grounds before newsworthiness is even reached); and Thansettakij's August new-issue debenture checklist showing 15 series at up to 7.35% (665244 — dated 31 Jul, out of window, and Sansiri is not among the issuers listed).
• WatchFour watches, one of them now retired and one newly sharpened. (1) RETIRED: the MPC watch is resolved — meeting 4/2569 held at 1.00% on 26 Aug and siri-policy-3 has been re-cut against the BOT primary. The replacement watch is the next decision, 28 October 2026, and before it the edited minutes of 4/2569, which usually publish about two weeks after the meeting and would carry the housing and mortgage detail the statement itself omits entirely. (2) SHARPENED: Sansiri's debenture subscription had NOT opened when this run finished. This desk run closed at 00:58 Bangkok time on 27 Aug and the window opens at 08:30 that same morning, so there is no take-up to report tonight — not a quiet result, simply a run that finished about seven and a half hours early. Take-up is the first thing to check tomorrow night, along with whether the ฿1,000-minimum first-come allocation fills before the 15:00 cutoff on 31 Aug. Issue size and use of proceeds are still unlocated after a fifth night; the SEC filing remains unfound and investor.sansiri.com's debenture table is still stamped 'as of May 2026'. (3) REIC's Q2/2569 foreign condo transfer report is STILL unpublished on a fifth check — the press-release index was re-fetched tonight and the two 17 Aug EEC price indexes remain the newest releases, with the 16 Jun Q1 report still the latest foreign-transfer data, so siri-foreign-1 cannot be refreshed. (4) BOI LTR remains unsourceable on a fifth night: ltr.boi.go.th was re-opened tonight and its 'Statistics of LTR Visa' and 'Statistics Nationalities of LTR Visa' panels still carry no figures in text — they are images — and no statistics page is linked from it at all. Wealth migration stays honestly empty.
• NoteRe-check result: all 10 existing items re-fetched and standing — every quoted figure reproduced verbatim on its live source, with no correction, postponement or supersession found on any of them. Nine cards changed nothing but checkCount; the tenth, siri-policy-3, was re-cut because a scheduled event finally landed on it. Note the diary has no 26 August day. That is not a missed night: the previous run finished at 00:21 on 26 Aug and this one at 00:58 on 27 Aug, about twenty-four and a half hours apart, so both landed just past midnight and the 26 Aug calendar label falls between them. The research window is a normal single day, not two.
• NoteTwo flags for the human verifier. (1) siri-policy-3 now says the rate has stood at 1.00% 'since February'. That is derived, not quoted: meeting 1/2569 on 25 Feb 2026 cut 1.25% to 1.00% and meetings 2, 3 and 4 have all held. The 4/2569 release does not say it, and press coverage frames it instead as the third consecutive hold and the lowest rate since September 2022 — a verifier may prefer to cut the clause or pin it to the 1/2569 release. (2) The killed Sansiri foreign-sales release is worth a human's attention even though it cannot be a card. It reports over ฿5,500m of H1 foreign sales against a target it exceeded, across China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Myanmar and Europe — a book that reads considerably better than the market backdrop siri-foreign-1 and siri-foreign-2 describe, where national foreign transfers fell 17.3% in Q1 and K-Research sees a 20% full-year contraction. The tension is real and interesting, but resolving it needs registry data, not the company's own count, and per this desk's standing rule the company's own book is not evidence about the market. Three URLs returned 403 or 404 to the fetcher tonight (Kaohoon 857724, Prachachat 2055231, prop2morrow's category index) and were routed around rather than cited.

25 Aug

• InvestigatedDay-4 evening re-check (Tuesday): all 10 sources re-fetched and every item still stands — the Thansettakij gazette report, both BOT releases, REIC's Q1 foreign-transfer report, K-Research via RYT9, the AP and Supalai exchange-press articles, Origin's newsroom, MGR's debenture notice and Post Today's ThaiBMA summary all reproduced their quoted figures verbatim, so every checkCount moved to 4. Sixteen leads were worked across the five sections and all four carried-forward watches; nothing carrying a primary source dated Aug 24–25 survived the tests, so zero new items is the honest result for a third night running.
• KilledKilled 7 leads: SCB EIC's 2569 growth upgrade to 2.2% from 2.0% with its call that the policy rate holds at 1.00% all year (prop2morrow 869541, 25 Aug — in-window, but the actual MPC decision settles that rate call the very next morning, so the card would be superseded within a day, and the report does not discuss housing, mortgages or credit conditions at all); the old Netherlands embassy land on Withayu Road (prop2morrow 869529, 25 Aug — the article is explicitly rumour, verbatim 'มีกระแสข่าวลือหนาหูในวงการอสังหาริมทรัพย์ว่า ได้เจ้าของใหม่', names no buyer and closes by asking who the new owner is); Aornsirin Holding's ฿4,262m backlog and Phuket community-mall plan (stockfocusnews, 21 Aug — out of window, a company press release rather than a filing, and Aornsirin sits outside the AP/Supalai/Origin set this section's rationale names, the same test that killed SC Asset on Aug 24); the 'Poles settling in Phuket' foreign-buyer story (REIC News 470998 syndicating Prachachat, 12 Aug — two weeks stale, and every figure in it is developer customer-book data attributed to executives at two listed developers, not Land Department or REIC registry data); Sansiri's own ฿0.05 dividend and 27 Aug XD date (Kaohoon 854117 — circular for this desk and already in the company's 14 Aug SET filings); InfoQuest's ThaiBMA bond-market report (611241) as a standalone item (it is the same 7 Jul briefing siri-fund-2 already carries, not a new event); and prop2morrow's remaining Aug 24–25 items — a ฿4bn contract win at a civil-engineering contractor, a building-materials retail tie-up, a furniture group's listing plan and BITEC winning GASTECH 2026 — all in-window but none belonging to any of the five sections.
• WatchFour watches carried forward. (1) The MPC meeting 4/2569 decision lands tomorrow, 26 Aug: no statement had published as of this run, and two research houses now expect a hold at 1.00% — K-Research (The Bangkok Insight 1688124) and SCB EIC (prop2morrow 869541, 25 Aug), whose forecast was killed as a card but stands as corroboration here. siri-policy-3 must be re-cut tomorrow evening whichever way it goes. (2) Sansiri's debenture subscription opens 27 Aug 08:30 — check take-up. The issue size and use of proceeds are still unlocated after a fourth night, and tonight the search moved to the issuer's own investor-relations pages for the first time: the debenture table at investor.sansiri.com is stamped 'as of May 2026' and lists no August digital issue, and the SET announcements list shows nothing at all between 14 Aug and tonight. Note SIRI also goes XD that same morning. (3) REIC's Q2/2569 foreign condo transfer report is STILL unpublished on a fourth check — the two 17 Aug EEC price indexes remain the newest releases and the 16 Jun Q1 report is still the latest foreign-transfer data, so siri-foreign-1 cannot be refreshed. (4) BOI LTR remains unsourceable, now with a sharper reason than 'no statistics published': the ltr.boi.go.th visa-issuance-statistic page returns 404 tonight, the LTR homepage carries its 'Statistics of LTR Visa' and 'Statistics Nationalities of LTR Visa' panels as images with no figures in text, and the Relocation Data Center page holds no numbers at all. Aggregators cite roughly 7,000 approvals and a ฿23bn economic-impact figure from a three-year BOI review, but with no fetchable BOI primary behind them those numbers cannot go on a card, so wealth-migration stays honestly empty.
• NoteRe-check result: all 10 existing items re-fetched and standing — every quoted figure reproduced verbatim on its live source, with no correction, postponement or supersession found on any of them, so nothing but checkCount changed on any card tonight. This evening run finished at 00:21 Bangkok time, just past midnight, which is why tonight's freshness stamp reads 26 Aug against a 25 Aug diary day.
• NoteTwo analyst notes for the human verifier. (1) The Aug 24 flag is resolved: the Phuket nationality mix that sat in apparent tension with siri-foreign-1 traces to a 12 Aug Prachachat piece in which every percentage is a developer's own customer book, attributed to named executives, and none of it is registry data — so it never was evidence against REIC's national picture and should not be read as qualifying that card. (2) ThaiBMA cross-check: InfoQuest's reproduction of the same 7 Jul briefing that siri-fund-2 cites puts H2 new corporate issuance at 'ราว 5 แสนลบ.' (~฿500bn) where Post Today reports 'over ฿400,000m'. The card says 'over ฿400bn', which is true under both readings, so no sourced figure was touched — but a verifier may prefer the tighter ~฿500bn from the same briefing. The InfoQuest version also attributes the outlook to ThaiBMA's managing director and adds the association's plan to extend oversight to the primary market; its default figures stay off the card, as on Aug 22, per the no-distress rule.

24 Aug

• InvestigatedDay-3 evening re-check (Monday): all 10 sources re-fetched and every item still stands — the Thansettakij gazette report, both BOT releases, REIC's Q1 foreign-transfer report, K-Research via RYT9, the AP and Supalai exchange-press articles, Origin's newsroom, MGR's debenture notice and Post Today's ThaiBMA summary all reproduced their quoted figures verbatim, so every checkCount moved to 3. Fourteen leads worked across the five sections; nothing carrying a primary source dated Aug 23–24 survived, so zero new items is again the honest result.
• NoteTwo cards de-relativized. Both were written on Aug 22 with countdown phrasing that has since gone false: siri-policy-3 said the MPC 'meets again on August 26, four days after this desk run' and siri-fund-1 said the debenture window 'opens in five days'. Neither underlying fact changed — the meeting is still Aug 26 and subscription still opens Aug 27 — but relative dates drift a day every night, and a booth visitor reads the card, not the run date. Both rewritten to absolute dates; no sourced figure touched; both autoVerdicts cleared for the gate to re-stamp.
• KilledKilled 5 leads: SC Asset's COBE Ratchada-Rama 9 transfer-pace release (prop2morrow, Aug 24 — in-window but a single-project marketing PR built on executive quotes, and SC Asset is outside the AP/Supalai/Origin set this section's rationale names; its only company-wide number, revenue +40% QoQ, is PR-stated rather than filed); Origin's ฿30bn Phuket portfolio push with its Russia 46.6% / Poland 15.9% / China 6.4% buyer mix (today's Bangkok Biznews feature is a write-up of an announcement dated 10 Aug — two weeks stale, and the percentages describe one developer's own customer book, not the market); ThaiBMA's weekly bond-market report (InfoQuest, week of 17–21 Aug — secondary-market turnover only, no new issuance data, and siri-fund-2 already carries the issuance conditions); REIC's Bangkok–vicinity housing market report at Research/348 (covers Q2 2568, published Oct 2025 — stale by a year); and the newswit/Krungthai debenture reminders as standalone items (same event as siri-fund-1, still no issue size or use of proceeds — corroboration only, as on Aug 23).
• WatchFour watches carried forward. (1) REIC's press-release index re-checked again tonight: the Q2/2569 foreign condo transfer report is STILL unpublished — the two 17 Aug EEC price indexes remain the newest releases and the 16 Jun Q1 report is still the latest foreign-transfer data, so siri-foreign-1 cannot be refreshed yet. (2) The MPC decision lands Wednesday 26 Aug; K-Research still expects a hold at 1.00% (The Bangkok Insight 1688124), and siri-policy-3 must be re-cut that evening whichever way it goes. (3) Sansiri's debenture subscription opens 27 Aug 08:30 — check take-up, and the SEC filing, issue size and use of proceeds are still unlocated after a third night of looking. (4) BOI LTR remains unsourceable: ltr.boi.go.th's visa-issuance page was opened tonight and publishes no application or approval statistics at all; secondary aggregators cite 10,773 approvals from 1 Sep 2022 to 31 Jul 2026, but with no BOI primary behind it that number cannot go on a card, so wealth-migration stays honestly empty.
• NoteRe-check result: all 10 existing items re-fetched and standing, no corrections, postponements or supersessions found. One item worth flagging to the human verifier: the Phuket nationality mix killed tonight (Russians first, Poles ahead of Chinese in one developer's Phuket book) sits in real tension with siri-foreign-1's registry picture of Chinese buyers ranking first nationally. That is a resort-versus-Bangkok split, not a contradiction, and it is a genuinely interesting read on Sansiri's Phuket 'Global Citizen' positioning — but it needs REIC or Land Department data behind it before it earns a card.

23 Aug

• InvestigatedDay-2 evening re-check (Sunday): all 10 items' sources re-fetched and every one still stands — the DOL fee notice, both BOT releases, REIC's Q1 foreign-transfer report, K-Research via RYT9, the AP and Supalai exchange-press articles, Origin's newsroom, MGR's debenture notice and Post Today's ThaiBMA summary all reproduced their quoted figures, so every checkCount moved to 2. The fresh-lead sweep across all five sections found nothing dated Aug 22–23; zero new items is the honest result for a quiet Sunday.
• NoteEvidence-gate cleanup, competitor cards: the AP and Supalai H1 figures flagged yesterday as absent from the archived pages ARE stated verbatim on the live RYT9 sources (AP H1 net profit 1,966.91 ล้านบาท; Supalai งวด 6 เดือน 2,048.84 ล้านบาท) — the archive captures had truncated the financial tables, not the sources. Both archiveFiles cleared for full re-archive; both cards unchanged.
• NoteEvidence-gate cleanup, fee-cut card: source swapped from the DOL Phichit page (whose archive was a 15KB JavaScript shell) to Thansettakij's 1 July report of the Royal Gazette publication (เล่ม 143 ตอนพิเศษ 161), which states the 0.01% rate, the ฿7m cap, coverage of new and second-hand homes, and the 1 Jul 2026 – 30 Jun 2027 window. The gazette PDF itself returns 403 to the fetcher and stays unpinned. The 'Thai natural persons only / foreigners still pay 2%' sentence came off the card because the new linked source does not state it; the fact survives in notes via the DOL corroboration.
• InvestigatedDebenture T-4 check: Krungthai's own reminder (read via LINE Today; the Kaohoon original 403s) fixes the final coupon at a single 3.70% — the earlier 3.70–3.80% marketing range is resolved and matches the card. The SEC filing, issue size and use of proceeds are still not locatable online; re-check once subscription opens August 27.
• KilledKilled 3 leads: Nation Thailand's 'condo launches at a 20-year low' story (published 5 May 2026 — stale, not an Aug 22–23 event); a Sansiri-Unilever household-waste partnership from around Aug 22 (CSR activity with no home in any desk section); and the Krungthai debenture reminder as a standalone item (same event as siri-fund-1, and its Kaohoon original is 403 to the fetcher — used only as corroboration in that item's notes).
• WatchREIC's press-release index re-checked: the Q2 foreign condo transfer report is still unpublished (latest releases remain the 17 Aug EEC price indexes), so wealth-migration and the foreign-demand refresh both stay on watch. No fresh BOI LTR primary appeared. The August 26 MPC decision is now three days out — siri-policy-3's 'next call August 26' line must be rewritten in Wednesday's run.

22 Aug

• InvestigatedFirst run: profiled Sansiri from its August 17 H1 release (Q2 profit THB 1,005M +16% QoQ, H1 profit THB 1,869M on THB 14,235M revenue, presales THB 25.5bn = 53% of the THB 48bn target, backlog THB 26bn, 21 H2 launches worth THB 27bn), then worked 15 candidate leads across policy, foreign demand, competitors, funding and wealth migration.
• Surfaced10 items survived verification against documents actually opened this run: the Department of Lands fee-cut notice, BOT release 19/2569 (LTV), the BOT MPC 3/2569 statement, REIC's Q1 foreign condo transfer report, Kasikorn Research's 2026 foreign-demand forecast, AP and Supalai Q2 filings via exchange press, Origin's own H1 newsroom release, MGR Online's debenture notice and Post Today's ThaiBMA H1 bond-market summary.
• KilledKilled 5 leads: a REIC-syndicated H1 foreign-transfer story that turned out to cover H1 2025, not 2026 (stale); the 75% foreign condo quota / 99-year lease debate (every source traced to mid-2024 cabinet direction — no 2026 primary document); a Kaohoon debenture reminder (HTTP 403 to the fetcher; replaced with MGR Online); REIC's Q2 2026 foreign condo transfer report (not yet published — the press-release index was checked, latest is Q1); and Sansiri's own February Phuket foreign-sales release as an item (circular for this desk — kept only as section rationale).
• WatchWealth migration & long-stay demand stayed empty today: no fresh BOI primary on LTR-visa approvals appeared in the July-August window, and Ministry of Tourism arrival statistics measure tourists, not long-stay buyers. Watching BOI LTR releases, REIC's Q2 foreign-transfer report (due within weeks) and the August 26 MPC decision.
• NoteHuman verifier: three flags — (1) the rate item says the next MPC decision is August 26; that line goes stale in four days. (2) The debenture item is the issuer's own distribution PR as carried by MGR Online; confirm final terms against the SEC filing before verifying. (3) AP and Supalai figures are exchange press (InfoQuest via RYT9) reporting company filings — corroborated, not read from the filings themselves.